GENEVA – A new report from the World Trade Organization (WTO) projects that artificial intelligence (AI) could boost the value of global trade in goods and services by as much as 40% by 2040. The increase is expected to be driven by a reduction in trade costs, increased productivity, and expanded participation in global markets.
The report, titled “Working on Trade and AI for Everyone’s Benefit,” was released on Wednesday. It suggests that the development and application of AI will lead to significant growth in global GDP, with projections ranging from 12% to 13% under various scenarios.
During the report’s launch event in Geneva, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated, “AI is already reshaping our economies and our societies. It has the potential to transform how we produce, consume, and trade.”
She further noted that AI’s contribution to trade growth will come from lowering trade costs and reorganizing the production of goods and services. A WTO simulation estimates that by 2040, AI could increase exports of goods and services by roughly 40% compared to current trends. A key finding of the research is that the private sector is already seeing tangible, trade-related benefits from using AI.
According to the report, nearly 90% of companies using AI have improved efficiency in managing trade risks or complying with procedures. However, the benefits of AI will not be automatically distributed evenly across economies. The WTO’s simulation indicates that while low-income economies could see an 8% growth from AI adoption, high-income countries might achieve double-digit growth. If the digital and AI divide were narrowed, low-income economies’ GDP could nearly double, reaching 15% growth without significantly altering the growth potential of high-income economies. “In other words, inclusive and equitable benefits are possible, but they require action,” Okonjo-Iweala emphasized.
Before the official release, WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill and report coordinators Marc Bacchetta, Emmanuelle Ganne, and Ankai Xu briefed journalists, highlighting the report’s key features. Hill noted that “trade policy uncertainty is a major disruptive force in the global trading environment,” creating pressure on business confidence, investment, and supply chains.
The report suggests that global trade could grow between 34% and 37% by 2040, depending on “policy dimensions and technological adoption levels across low- and high-income economies.” It also highlights how AI can help economies access AI-enabled goods such as raw materials, semiconductors, and other intermediate inputs. Global trade in these products reached a total of $2.3 trillion in 2023.
To make AI and trade contribute to inclusive growth, policies must be put in place to bridge the digital divide, invest in workforce skills, and maintain an open and predictable trading environment. The report stresses the need for close cooperation between the WTO and other international organizations to support greater global participation in an AI-driven economy.
